Middle East analyst and former adviser to Israeli government in international relations Jonathan Spyer told ANF that Erdogan‘s new policy against Israel is building him an enormous popularity in the „Arab Streets“ but this is unlikely to translate into real and substantive gain for Turkey. Spyer, who also writes for Jerusalem Post and the British Newspaper The Guardian, says, „Turkish hostility toward Israel is part of AKP’s ideology. Because AKP is an Islamist party and its leaders have a genuine deep hatred for Israel and they are currently acting in accordance with this sentiment“. Regarding to Lieberman’s statement published by Israeli paper Yedioth in which he said that Israel will work with Armenian lobby,  meet PKK leaders in Europe and offer them military aid Spyer said, „I do not think that these reflected the policy of the government of Israel, but were rather simply the foreign minister expressing his own thoughts on the subject of how Israel might respond effectively to Turkey’s latest actions“.

What do you think about Turkish hostility against State of Israel after the publication of the UN Palmer Commission Report on so-called Mavi Marmara raid conducted by Israeli forces? Do you see any sincerity in demands of Turkish leaders? Or are they just show off?

I think that the Turkish government’s response to the publication of the Palmer report represents the latest episode in a larger process, in which Turkey is shifting towards a position of greater hostility to Israel.  This forms part of a larger Turkish strategy which is intended to result in Turkey’s emerging as the dominant power of the region. I am sure that the Turkish government is ‘sincere’ – that is, the AKP is an Islamist party whose leaders have a genuine and deep hatred for Israel, and they are currently acting in accordance with this sentiment, as well as in accordance with their own perception of Turkey’s strategic interests and direction.

Foreign minister Davutoglu then PM Erdogan has promised to step up naval patrols in the eastern Mediterranean to ensure “freedom” of maritime traffic.  Moreover, Erdogan told  Al Jazeera television on Thursday that Turkish warships will escort any Turkish aid vessels to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and he was claiming that Israel was exploiting natural resources of eastern Mediterranean unilaterally. Do you think that Turkey has the courage and confidence to apply such dangerous actions?

Prime Minister Erdogan’s office is now saying that he was mis-quoted in these statements. Turkey is a NATO member country, and if it wishes to continue this membership, it is required to abide by international norms, and cannot begin sending warships to the eastern Mediterranean whenever it is inclined to do so. At the same time, I think we have to be aware of a larger context to these statements, which is the Turkish desire to enter the Mediterranean as part of an attempt to intimidate Cyprus from drilling for gas. Turkey wants to promote the interests of the Turkish entity in northern Cyprus with regard to natural gas in the Mediterranean. As part of this, Turkey would like to deeply its navy in the area.  But Turkey appears to already be backing off from the very provocative statements which Erdogan appeared to have made earlier. In any case, Erdogan’s statement is somewhat meaningless, since aid ships would have to enter Israeli waters to reach Cyprus, at which point Israel could aprehend them.  If Turkish naval ships entered Israeli waters without authorization, this would be an act of war.  It is unlikely that the Turkish  government is yet ready for such a move.

During his interview on Al Jazeera, Erdogan also accused Israel of not providing maintenance for Herons unmanned aerial vehicles that Israel Aerospace Industries supplied to Turkey last year. According to turkish media the unmanned vehicles were sent to Israel for maintenance but Israel did not deliver them back to Turkey?

I am not aware of the specific details of this case, but as far as I am aware, the Turks have had several substantive and justified criticisms of Israeli behavior with regard to sales of military technology in the last years.  These complaints, which appear to derive more from a certain amateurishness and carelessness on the part of the Israelis than from any malice, have nevertheless had the unwelcome result of turning some Turkish military people away from support for Israel, acording to what reliable Turkish sources have told me.

Turkish leaders plan to head to International court of justice over Gaza blockade which Palmer commission already decided legal. Do you believe that the Court has something to do with Gaza blockade? (First of all, Turkey is not considered to be a conflicting party over Gaza. Second, Gaza is not Turkey’s mandate. Third, Court accepts cases brought by two conflicting parties. In this case Israel is not going to go to the Court.

I think there is little chance that Turkey will achieve anything substantial by pursuing this path.  The ICJ cannot compel Israel to follow a particular course of action if it does not wish to, even if the court were to be convinced of Turkey’s case, which is itself not at all certain.

And There are reports that Isreali citizens were singled out at Turkish airports and were harassed by Turkish security forces last week.

Yes, it appears that this took place as a result of orders from above. it is difficult to believe that the airport authorities would have acted in this way without some sort of instructions. It is very unfortunate and the net result will be the further drastic decline of Israeli tourism to Turkey, which once flourished.

Do you think there will be a winner of this crisis in the light of the current atmosphere?

I think that Erdogan’s foreign policy is building him enormous popularity in the ‘Arab street’, but that this is unlikely to translate into real and substantive gain for Turkey.  In the meantime, Erdogan’s diplomacy vis a vis Bahrain, Libya and Syria has been erratic and inconsistent.  As for Israel, it knows it cannot effect the current deep changes under way in the region, and it is likely to follow a strategy of ‘damage limitation’, trying to keep the basic fundamentals of, for example, its relations with Turkey and Egypt intact while at the same time refusing to humiliate itself and act in a way it regards as incommensurate with its dignity – for example, by issuing an apology when it does not consider itself the sole responsible party for the tragic events on the Mavi Marmara.

According to Yedioth newspaper, Israeli foreign minister Avidgor Lieberman said that they will work with Armenian Lobby and meet Kurdish leaders in Europe. He even said that they offer military aid to PKK in ist fight against Turkey and Iran. Do you see any rationality of his words in the light of current atmosphere?

I do not think that these reflected the policy of the government of Israel, but were rather simply the foreign minister expressing his own thoughts on the subject of how Israel might respond effectively to Turkey’s latest actions.

RODI HEVIAN – ANF / NEWS DESK

ANF NEWS AGENCY