«Η Ρωσία είναι πιθανό να είναι πιο πρόθυμη να χρησιμοποιήσει στρατιωτική βία σε έναν περιφερειακό πόλεμο εναντίον μιας ή περισσοτέρων ευρωπαϊκών χωρών του ΝΑΤΟ, εάν αντιληφθεί το ΝΑΤΟ ως στρατιωτικά αποδυναμωμένο ή πολιτικά διχασμένο» αναφέρει η έκθεση της υπηρεσίας πληροφοριών της Δανίας, η οποία δημοσιεύθηκε στο Politico.

«Αυτό ισχύει ιδιαίτερα αν η Ρωσία εκτιμήσει ότι οι ΗΠΑ δεν μπορούν ή δεν θα υποστηρίξουν τις ευρωπαϊκές χώρες του ΝΑΤΟ σε έναν πόλεμο με τη Ρωσία» συνεχίζει η έκθεση, τονίζοντας ότι η Ρωσία αυξάνει τις στρατιωτικές της δυνατότητες για να προετοιμαστεί για έναν πιθανό πόλεμο εναντίον του ΝΑΤΟ.

Σύμφωνα με την υπηρεσία, υπάρχουν τρία σενάρια που θα μπορούσαν να πραγματοποιηθούν εάν η σύγκρουση στην Ουκρανία τελειώσει ή «παγώσει», στη λογική ότι η Ρωσία δεν θα μπορεί να διεξάγει πόλεμο με πολλές χώρες ταυτόχρονα.

Μέσα σε έξι μήνες, σύμφωνα με την έκθεση, η Ρωσία θα είναι σε θέση να διεξάγει έναν πόλεμο με μια γειτονική χώρα, ενώ μέσα σε δύο χρόνια θα μπορούσε να εξαπολύσει έναν περιφερειακό πόλεμο στην περιοχή της Βαλτικής Θάλασσας. Σε πέντε χρόνια θα μπορούσε να εξαπολύσει επίθεση μεγάλης κλίμακας στην Ευρώπη, υπό την προϋπόθεση ότι δεν θα εμπλακούν οι ΗΠΑ, τονίζει η υπηρεσία.

Ο Τραμπ έχει παροτρύνει τα μέλη του ΝΑΤΟ να αυξήσουν τις αμυντικές τους δαπάνες στο 5% του ΑΕΠ, υπερδιπλάσιο ποσοστό του σημερινού στόχου, και έχει απειλήσει ότι οι ΗΠΑ θα μπορούσαν να αποχωρήσουν από τη στρατιωτική συμμαχία, εάν οι σύμμαχοί τους δεν πληρώσουν τα έξοδά τους.

Το 2024 ο Τραμπ είχε δηλώσει ότι θα «ενθάρρυνε» τη Ρωσία να επιτεθεί σε οποιαδήποτε χώρα-μέλος του ΝΑΤΟ που δεν εκπληρώνει τις οικονομικές της υποχρεώσεις.

Για τον κίνδυνο ενός πολέμου εντός πενταετίας με τη Ρωσία έχει προειδοποιήσει και ο γενικός γραμματέας του ΝΑΤΟ, Μαρκ Ρούτε.

‘BEST NEGOTIATOR ON THE PLANET’

On February 5, Pakistan hosted key members of the Hamas terror outfit in Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir’s (PoJK) Rawalakote on the so-called ‘Kashmir Solidarity Day’. Top leaders of anti-India terror groups, Lashkar-i-Tayyaba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), were also present at the event, along with some Pakistani political leaders from the occupied territory. It was an unprecedented development considering Pakistan’s military establishment brought not just local proxy outfits but an internationally labeled terror group like Hamas to the region. These developments further confirm that Pakistan remains the epicenter of terrorism, wherein both domestic and global terror outfits receive state protection and can operate freely. By hosting members of an anti-Israel and anti-Western terror group, Pakistan’s security establishment has shown its intention to support radical Islamist ideology across the world. More importantly, the event took place at a time when the US President, Donald Trump, has been pressing Hamas to release Israeli hostages immediately or “all hell is going to break out” on the terror outfit.¹ On the contrary, Pakistan has openly shown support to Hamas by hosting its members in PoJK.

Additionally, the event provided much-needed publicity to Hamas and motivated anti-India terror outfits like LeT, JeM, Hizbul Mujaheddin, Al-Badr, etc, to create instability in Jammu and Kashmir. Without the patronage of the Pakistan military, especially Chief of Army Staff General Syed Asim Munir, Hamas would not have been invited to the country and received the five-star treatment. Reports suggest that the so-called ‘Kashmir Solidarity’ event in PoJK saw the presence of Hamas Spokespersons Dr Khalid Qaddoumi, Dr Naji Zaheer apart from leaders Mufti Azam and Bilal Alsallat at a Rawalakote rally attended by JeM’s leader Masood Azhar brother Talha Saif, launching commander Asghar Khan Kashmiri, Masood Ilyas and top LeT terror commanders.

The event, titled “Kashmir Solidarity and Hamas Operation ‘Al Aqsa Flood’ Conference,” was designed to convey that both Kashmir and Palestine were subjects for pan-Islamic jihad and ask the Muslim Ummah to unite against India, Israel, and the US. Notably, Pakistan has been a key supporter of Hamas and its terror activities against Israel. However, Islamabad’s support for the group has increased substantially since the October 7, 2023, Hamas ‘Operation Al-Aqsa Flood,’ which resulted in 1200 casualties on the Israeli side and over 200 people were taken as hostages.² Pakistan has not yet condemned the October 7 incident and openly supported the terror activities of Hamas against Israel.³

Some reports suggest that Pakistan may provide state protection to around 15 top Hamas leaders on its soil in exchange for financial assistance and logistical support for anti-India terror outfits. Earlier this month, Hamas claimed that Pakistan agreed “to host 15 Palestinian prisoners” who were released from Israeli custody under a recent ceasefire agreement. Hamas spokesman Dr. Khalid Al-Qadoumi said, “Initially, the number will be 15, but the timeline for their arrival in Pakistan has not yet been determined.”⁴ Pakistan’s Interior Ministry immediately denied “any knowledge of the arrangement” to avoid international embarrassment and criticism from the new Trump administration in the US.⁵

In the past, Pakistan hosted top Al-Qaeda leaders like Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri for years. Therefore, it is not surprising that a similar arrangement may be made in this case, as the U.S. and Israel are reportedly planning to hunt the remaining top leaders of Hamas. Moreover, the presence of Hamas members in Pakistan could enhance the terror recruitment drive in the country. Facing an unprecedented economic crisis and record-low approval ratings, Pakistan’s military establishment would seize any opportunity to garner public support regarding Kashmir and the Israel-Palestine issue. As a longstanding policy position, Pakistan conflates the two issues at international forums to gain backing from other Muslim countries and human rights organizations. Although Islamabad’s desperate efforts have largely failed to generate momentum against India and Israel, its policy has remained unchanged.

With the ongoing Israel-Gaza crisis, Pakistan sees another opportunity to exploit the two issues and foster instability in Jammu and Kashmir. More importantly, Pakistan became a temporary member of the UN Security Council this year and has intensified efforts to internationalize the Kashmir issue. After the revocation of J&K’s ‘special status’ in August 2019, Islamabad tried to garner support from the international community regarding Kashmir. However, it failed miserably as the world ignored Pakistan’s “concerns” and backed India’s development-centric agenda in J&K. Nevertheless, the recent events in PoJK and Hamas’s presence there confirm Pakistan’s intention to create disturbances in J&K and support the terror agenda in Israel.

The development highlights Pakistan’s evident role as an international sponsor of terrorist activities, directly contradicting President Trump’s peace agenda in the Middle East and beyond.⁶ By openly supporting and hosting high-ranking Hamas leaders in PoJK, Pakistan’s military establishment has dismissed President Trump’s stern stance on international terrorism. Aware of the sensitivity of this development and its potential implications for the country, Pakistan’s foreign ministry attempted to downplay the presence of Hamas and other terror groups in PoJK with the following statement: “I need to verify the facts regarding this. I am not familiar with it. I will consult with the relevant departments and get back to you.”

It is possible that there are internal divisions within Pakistan on the Hamas issue. However, the damage is done, and Pakistan has once again demonstrated that it is a center of international terrorism, which could have implications for Western nations, including the U.S. Consequently, the Trump administration should prioritize this issue and caution Pakistan’s military establishment against allowing its soil to harbor terrorism aimed at India, Israel, and other Western countries. The much-needed support for Hamas through the PoJK event might encourage its operatives to launch new attacks in Israel and against American citizens in the Middle East.